I heat without pumping in my inverted hot water cylinder, and have never seen the stat switch off due to lack of convection movement in the oil. It sticks in at about 45 degrees from the bottom - maybe this has a positive influence?
I can see yours being the best orientation for convection only.
My mucky drum as I call it is a cone bottom 205 drum, the heater is fitted about 150mm up from the bottom rim of the drum, historically it has never had a stat, just a light rigged with the heater so I know it is on.
However. Recently the element blew when I was draining the drum with the heater on and I was not in the garage (pop) So the new element went in with the stat and I could not believe the amount of time the heater spent off rather than on, the oil was very thick but took an unrealistic amount of time to heat until I bypassed the stat again.
that makes perfect sense, i chose not to remove the stat as i was worried for the extention cable, at least with tripping in and out the cable gets time to cool, i do have a thermostat of the old type variety (no safety trip out) which starts at 50c i belive the scale is upto 90c if i remeber, which would put it permantly on till clearing 50c temp in the oil, then trip in / out till 60c, which would speed things up but still worries me on the cable ext. the plug and cable gets warm when cooking for 3 hours.
but yes your right if heater was on all the time i might get speeds of 1 hour maybe?
think i will just live with it, i have for 4 years now.
but going back to the calc tool, maybe its a very general/average time and has outside factors that will alter it vastly.